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The global freight market has been navigating a period of mixed signals in 2025. Economic recovery in some regions is being offset by geopolitical uncertainty, fluctuating consumer demand, and ongoing supply chain realignments.
As we move into the second half of the year, shippers, forwarders, and carriers are adjusting their expectations to reflect a more complex operating environment.
For logistics providers, understanding the key market drivers and potential scenarios is critical for planning capacity, pricing, and customer strategies.
Ocean Freight Outlook:
After a turbulent few years, ocean freight rates have stabilised compared to the highs of the pandemic era, though they remain sensitive to regional disruptions. Vessel capacity is generally adequate, but events such as the Panama Canal restrictions and congestion at certain Asian and European ports continue to create localised pressures. Demand on major east–west trades is expected to remain steady, with some growth on secondary routes serving emerging markets.
Fuel prices will continue to be a factor, particularly as environmental regulations tighten. The shift to low-sulphur and alternative fuels is likely to keep bunker costs elevated, influencing carrier pricing strategies.
Air Freight Trends:
Air freight volumes have softened from the exceptional peaks seen during the pandemic, but demand remains resilient in certain sectors such as pharmaceuticals, high-value electronics, and e-commerce. Capacity has improved with the return of passenger flights, easing some rate pressure. However, any sudden supply chain disruption — whether from weather, industrial action, or geopolitical events — could see demand spike temporarily.
Forwarders with flexible air–sea solutions will be better positioned to offer customers faster transit options without the high cost of relying solely on air freight.
Regional Variations:
Asia–Europe and trans-Pacific trades are expected to see moderate growth, driven by manufacturing diversification and shifting sourcing patterns. Intra-Asia and intra-European services will benefit from regional supply chain strengthening, while Africa’s trade volumes are projected to grow steadily as infrastructure and market access improve. North American domestic freight is likely to remain competitive, with road and rail carriers facing cost pressures from fuel and labour markets.
Key Risks to Monitor:
Economic conditions remain a wildcard. Inflationary pressures, interest rate changes, and consumer spending patterns will influence demand levels in many markets. Geopolitical tensions — including trade disputes and regional conflicts — could disrupt established routes. Climate-related events, from droughts to storms, may also affect infrastructure and capacity, as seen with the recent Panama Canal restrictions.
Strategies for Forwarders and Shippers:
Flexibility will be the defining advantage for logistics providers in the coming months. Diversifying transport modes, securing capacity in advance, and maintaining strong relationships with carriers will help manage volatility. Using digital tools for market monitoring, scenario planning, and cargo visibility can improve decision-making. Cost management will also be key — balancing competitive pricing with the need to invest in sustainability and technology will require careful strategy.
The Bottom Line:
The second half of 2025 is set to bring both opportunities and challenges for the freight sector. Businesses that anticipate market shifts, adapt quickly to changing conditions, and invest in the right partnerships and technology will be best placed to perform strongly in this unpredictable environment.
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